The three rebel factions in Elwynn (Ayreonist, Icebears, Southern League) derive their support from their support base comprised of three pre-war political parties (Ayreonist Independence Party, Holy Party of the Divine Icebear, Nationalist and Humanist Party).
The support base is calculated by taking the projected electorate of each Elwynnese county (half of the population recorded in the
1656 census) and dividing that figure by the number of seats allocated in each county for the
1658 elections before multiplying by the number of seats gained by each respective party. Of the voters treated thus as "supporters" only one in a hundred are deemed to be committed enough to be counted as "fighters", providing the total number of militants supporting the respective groups in each county.
This data is then used to infer territorial control at the outset.
Where a faction can be said to be "in control" by virtue of numerical superiority it will be stated that the party militia will have taken possession of the local Republican Guard and cudgeller barracks, thereby facilitating their access to riot gear, SWAT equipment, assault weapons and the like. The militia of those factions not in possession of the county will be obliged to organise as guerrillas, their priority being to form cell structures, obtain armaments, and avoid being liquidated by the dominant force.
(Agnesia is marked as contested because a pre-emptive attack by Icebear fanatics captured Vijayanagara, nullifying the numerical advantage of N&H supporters in the county.)