Synopsis
In general terms, the rebels, organised into a Southern League led by Daniyal ibn Daniyal Simrani-Kalirion, are attempting to surround and occupy Eliria from their muster points in Araxion, Ardashirshahr, and Islus.
The Ayreonists, disorganised after the unattributed nighttime bombing of Eliria (presumed to have been by rogue Imperial Forces aligned with the Nationalist and Humanist Party) resulted in the destruction of the Senate, would seek to defend the capital at all cost whilst trying to restore lines of communication southwards to Shirekeep.
The Imperial Government in Shirekeep has problems of its own, but aside from executing the most egregious troublemakers, is mostly interested in the restoration of the semblance of order and a negotiated settlement, rather than yet another protracted campaign in the wayward Northern State.
Goldshire, basking in newfound power since the Auspicious Occasion and the annexation of Wintergleam, watches these developments with interest.
Forces
After the Auspicious Occasion, Elwynn's once formidable army, the Union Defence Force, was disarmed; largely denuded of virtually all heavy weapons systems, including armour, artillery, and aviation. The Republican Guard,
on paper a formidable force, has barely a
functioning corps and some
scant shipping.
The opposing forces, raised by the Southern League, are an ad hoc militia of ideological extremists, combined with mercenaries, criminals, and the family retainers of the Houses of Osman and Simrani-Kalirion, amongst whom pretty much all the same vices are replicated all over again. By virtue of
martial alliances with officers of the
Palatini Corps ensure some access to heavy weaponry smuggled by discrete channels, albeit subject to interdiction efforts by agents of the Crypteia at the behest of a deeply unamused Steward.
The Nationalist & Humanist Party, the ESB Group, and the Emirate of Jadid Khaz Modan, are all sympathetic to the rebel cause but are unlikely to risk their position by direct attributable intervention.