Geopolitical Analysis 2006

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Thadeus Laing
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Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Thadeus Laing »

NOTE: The following analysis was made for political purposes for a political client. CG (formerly VasCo) is completely neutral. There are no sides being taken. However the following is a sampling of the type of work that can be done by our Geopolitical Analysis Dept, circa '06.
The Persian word Jahangir means “conqueror of the world”. This
word is also fitting as a title of this particular plan of conquest because
Babkha, the micro-nation involved in its execution, is a Persian-themed
micro-nation. The noble warrior spirit of the Babkhan micro-nation is the
force of destiny...
The reasons why Babkha must devote itself to the task of forging an
Empire are rooted in science. A statistical analysis of micro-national trends
has shown that micro-nations are heading towards more consolidation...
...unlike most micro-nations, which would have no choice but to watch their
own slow destruction, Babkha is more powerful. The scientific evidence
already presented has proven that. All Babkha has to do to ensure its
survival, and glory, is undergo a metamorphosis into a micro-national
organization itself. It is already a part of the Grand Commonwealth; perhaps
that is the organ through which this will be achieved.
But wouldn’t Babkha be just one micro-national organization out of
tens or perhaps hundreds of micro-national organizations? It won’t be, if it
does things properly.
The goal: total and
complete domination over ALL of micro-nationalism!
Goals of the Empire
In the Introduction, it was explained why Babkha needed to start
building its Empire. Below is what the Empire will do:
• Annex every existing micro-nation
• Enforce basic human rights across the Empire
• Maintain security across the Empire
• Give the option of free Web Hosting and Forums for each annexed
micro-nation
• Standard Name and ID System across the Empire
• Overtake the MCS Map
• Regulate micro-nationalism as a hobby through an Empire-controlled
organization known as the Association of Micro-nationalists.
• Snuff out competition through peaceful or other means
• Institute the position of Emperor/Empress
• Institute an Imperial Council, composed of ministers selected by the
Emperor
• Institute an Imperial Senate, composed of one senator from each
member nation
• Institute a Supreme Court of the Empire, composed of judges selected
by the Council
• Make it known that the Empire is the very definition of micro-
nationalism, and that all micro-nations are a part of the empire
regardless of their government’s opinions
• Allow sub-nations to conduct their own foreign affairs and other
business
No other micro-nation, save a few, could implement the previous
goals...it has been statistically proven that
Babkha... would have a greater than 79%
chance of success at constructing the Empire. As a comparison, Shireroth
has only a 54% chance of success. Compared to most micro-nations, those
are high percentages.
If you factor together the rate of decline in Babkha’s activity, which is
approximately 16% a year, with the rate of increase in micro-national
organizations each year, which is about n³ at the moment, and the chance of
success for another micro-nation besides Babkha at constructing the Empire,
say, Shireroth, perhaps, you will see that the time Babkha has left in which it
can act to construct the Empire is actually very slim.
.16 x (7³/79) = 0.694 = 69% decrease in chance of success, per year, for Babkha
79% starting – 69% first year = 10% chance of success left for second year
.16 x (7³/54) = 1.016 = 101% decrease in chance of success, per year for Shireroth
54% starting – 101% first year = 0% chance of success left for second year
Fig 1.4
From the above sequence of mathematical operations you can see that
Babkha has only about one year left to construct the Empire, with only a
very slim chance for the year after that. Shireroth actually has a much less
chance of constructing the Empire, which is good for Babkha. But, the
number of micro-national organizations increases exponentially to a power
of three, if you’ll remember. Therefore what we will actually see is that
Babkha’s chances for constructing the Empire, two years from now, actually
will increase, if it is still in existence then, of course.
Many of these predictions have come or are coming to fruition, as of 2012.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Malliki »

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Hesam Jayatar »

Your mastery of cognitive dissonance is always remarkable.

Any assessments you claimed in that document were either already true at the time and you were simply too self-assured to bother checking, or; you were completely wrong and you've just managed to convince yourself you're right.

1. Babkha has always had a majilis whereby each region is represented by one individual.

2. Babkha has always attempted to standardize forums and participation.

3. Our supreme court has not changed its essential structure in a decade.

4. We've had an "Emperor" for the entirety of our existence. Namely Shahanshah.

5. We've had a cabinet since our founding.

Everything else you "predicted" has been completely false. The things you were correct about, were in place long before you mastered reliable bowel control, we've been here since 2000.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Malliki »

I'm still waiting for the millions of micronational organizations that are supposedly around here somewhere.
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Malliki »

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by HM Amane VIII »

Lol.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by ConglacioII »

• Enforce basic human rights across the Empire
Ah! A recently passed law did this very thing!
Such genius this document is!
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Thadeus Laing »

Emir of Sajin GmbH wrote:Your mastery of cognitive dissonance is always remarkable.

Any assessments you claimed in that document were either already true at the time and you were simply too self-assured to bother checking, or; you were completely wrong and you've just managed to convince yourself you're right.

1. Babkha has always had a majilis whereby each region is represented by one individual.

2. Babkha has always attempted to standardize forums and participation.

3. Our supreme court has not changed its essential structure in a decade.

4. We've had an "Emperor" for the entirety of our existence. Namely Shahanshah.

5. We've had a cabinet since our founding.

Everything else you "predicted" has been completely false. The things you were correct about, were in place long before you mastered reliable bowel control, we've been here since 2000.
I like to think that Babkha is a deadly combination of very smart and also very malicious. Shireroth is very smart because it influences its neighbors--almost always in a positive and peaceful way. Babkha is also very smart because it influences its neighbors--but it is also willing to destroy its neighbors, while merely remaining neutral towards others, and this has made it trend more towards the full-fledged Empire I described back in 2006.

There are already many institutions in existence today that, if they were under the control of Babkha or even just influenced strongly by Babkha, would constitute many of the main criteria that I consider to form a full-fledged Empire. The Emir might be selling himself short to not consider that Babkhans might have influence over these "Imperial" institutions. His fellow Babkhans might belong to them.

I think the addition of Babkhan bases to Elwynn and then getting an Elwynn sympathizer installed as Shireroth's Kaiser and then forging strong ties with Elwynn equates to a coup. I truly thought that in 2006 Antica, Babkha, and Shireroth were all possible of becoming an Empire (though Babkha always had the strongest chance), and now Babkha has benefited from the fall of Antica and is now poised to eliminate Shireroth.

But perhaps some Babkhans are not as self-absorbed as one might believe....

I would like to do a little free mini-analysis and just go over the equivalents that we have today for the following Imperial institutions. They are added to the "Goals of the Empire" list in bold.
Goals of the Empire (2006)
In the Introduction, it was explained why Babkha needed to start
building its Empire. Below is what the Empire will do:
• Annex every existing micro-nation -- annexations and attempts at annexation are increasing
• Enforce basic human rights across the Empire -- I admit, this one is iffy with a Babkhan empire; but Shireroth has been banning Serfdom as well as encouraging more human rights lately
• Maintain security across the Empire -- Babkha is the primary weapons source now. Its competitors including Ashkenatza are waning. Wars are happening and Babkhan allies are or Babkha itself is winning.
• Give the option of free Web Hosting and Forums for each annexed One word. Bastion.
micro-nation
• Standard Name and ID System across the Empire There have been many influential projects towards standardization throughout Micras since 2006
• Overtake the MCS Map Babkha's annexations of Antican territory as well as the recent proposed ceding of territory from Shireroth to Babkhan allies are trends towards this direction
• Regulate micro-nationalism as a hobby through an Empire-controlled
organization known as the Association of Micro-nationalists. Three words: Micras Treaty Organization. However there are also other organizations such as the proposed Benacian Union, Bastion Administration itself, etc. which also are increasing in power
• Snuff out competition through peaceful or other means This is where Babkha has really been successful
• Institute the position of Emperor/Empress Babkha already had this
• Institute an Imperial Council, composed of ministers selected by the
Emperor Babkha already had this
• Institute an Imperial Senate, composed of one senator from each
member nation Babkha already had this
• Institute a Supreme Court of the Empire, composed of judges selected
by the Council See the MTO common court. And Babkhan Courts have been quite active internationally lately.
• Make it known that the Empire is the very definition of micro-
nationalism, and that all micro-nations are a part of the empire
regardless of their government’s opinions The renaming of micro-nationalism into interactive geofiction, the trend towards standardization...these things are trends towards this direction
• Allow sub-nations to conduct their own foreign affairs and other
business Some autonomy has to be allowed or people would just split entirely and then the Empire would dissolve. I think we are seeing some autonomy being allows in Bastion and MTO nations/


I would also like to make a couple of points:

1. I do not claim that there is a Babkhan Empire--only increasing trends in this direction.
2. I do not do geopolitical analysis on Babkha specifically anymore since I was banned from their forums; therefore, I could be wrong about some aspects of the mini-analysis in this post, since I can only act as an outside observer of Babkha's activities and influences on other nations.

EDIT: Some grammatical corrections.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Mira Raynora Major »

Sometimes I find it very difficult to judge when certain people are being serious or not: just when I'm sure that something cannot possibly be for real, I learn that actually, it is.

This might be another of those instances.
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Hesam Jayatar »

All of the points you identified as "Babkha already has this" we had years before you made your analysis in 2006.

As for the rest, you've chosen an inductive conclusion based on logical fallacy rather than fact. In a community of twenty people where many people hold more than one citizenship, you're assuming Babkha is the dominant power when you could easily attribute the same to Shireroth, Antica or Alexandria depending on what you WANT to see.

Emir of Raspur

Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Emir of Raspur »

Emir of Sajin GmbH wrote:All of the points you identified as "Babkha already has this" we had years before you made your analysis in 2006.

As for the rest, you've chosen an inductive conclusion based on logical fallacy rather than fact. In a community of twenty people where many people hold more than one citizenship, you're assuming Babkha is the dominant power when you could easily attribute the same to Shireroth, Antica or Alexandria depending on what you WANT to see.
But why go with the established options? I think we happen to be living through the age of the Secret Sanillan Empire.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Mira Raynora Major »

Have you seen the size of the new Sanillan government building on Meekras? If that isn't an expression of imperialist intentions, I don't know what is...
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Hesam Jayatar »

I believe that the subjective information I've picked and chosen would suggest that we're actually all serfs under the Treesian jackboot. Why? Look at the things I choose to highlight:

- Treesia was a micronation.

- Some current micronationalists were once Treesians.

- Those micronationalists exist in the most active states at present.

- Treesia has two e's in its' spelling.

- The first letter of empire is 'e'

- Treesia also has the word 'tree' in it, and as we all know, trees spread and branch out like an empire.

- Those people who were supposed 'former' Treesians contribute a great deal to politics and draw a lot of military type things.

Therefore Treesia is the largest shadow empire in the community.

I think you'll find I'm a genius if you review the information I've chosen to talk about.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Malliki »

Gustave Chevalier wrote:I like to think that a deadly combination of very smart and also very malicious. Shireroth is very smart because it influences its neighbors--almost always in a positive and peaceful way. Babkha is also very smart because it influences its neighbors--but it is also willing to destroy its neighbors, while merely remaining neutral towards others, and this has made it trend more towards the full-fledged Empire I described back in 2006.

There are already many institutions in existence today that, if they were under the control of Babkha or even just influenced strongly by Babkha, would constitute many of the main criteria that I consider to form a full-fledged Empire. The Emir might be selling himself short to not consider that Babkhans might have influence over these "Imperial" institutions. His fellow Babkhans might belong to them.
I am President of the United States because there is an Office of President of the United States.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:I think the addition of Babkhan bases to Elwynn and then getting an Elwynn sympathizer installed as Shireroth's Kaiser and then forging strong ties with Elwynn equates to a coup. I truly thought that in 2006 Antica, Babkha, and Shireroth were all possible of becoming an Empire (though Babkha always had the strongest chance), and now Babkha has benefited from the fall of Antica and is now poised to eliminate Shireroth.
This is preposterous. As far as I know, there are no Babkhan bases in Elwynn, just a military access treaty, something Babkha and many others routinely sign. Babkha had no hand in installing the current Kaiser, who has made no decrees or other measures to bring Shireroth closer to Babkha. Scott chose Ric out of his own volition. How forging strong ties to Elwynn, a former part of Shireroth, constitutes part of a coup is beyond me. Babkha will not eliminate Shireroth since Shireroth is getting on fine at the moment. This is stupid.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:But perhaps some Babkhans are not as self-absorbed as one might believe....

I would like to do a little free mini-analysis and just go over the equivalents that we have today for the following Imperial institutions. They are added to the "Goals of the Empire" list in bold.

Goals of the Empire (2006)
In the Introduction, it was explained why Babkha needed to start
building its Empire. Below is what the Empire will do:
• Annex every existing micro-nation -- annexations and attempts at annexation are increasing
Orly? Name one. Alexandria is independent again as far as I know and Natopia will be moving for that soon.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Enforce basic human rights across the Empire -- I admit, this one is iffy with a Babkhan empire; but Shireroth has been banning Serfdom as well as encouraging more human rights lately
What does what Shireroth is doing have to do with Babkha? Either Babkha is trying to form this Empire you speak of, or Shireroth is.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Maintain security across the Empire -- Babkha is the primary weapons source now. Its competitors including Ashkenatza are waning. Wars are happening and Babkhan allies are or Babkha itself is winning.
What wars? There is a cold war with Ashkenatza, and war brewing between Alexandria and Ocia. No wars have been finished though in probably a year, so I fail to see how you are correct here.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Give the option of free Web Hosting and Forums for each annexed micro-nation One word. Bastion.
Bastion was not founded by Babkha. Membership is voluntary. Member nations are fully sovereign as Bastion is not a political union, so you are again incorrect.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Standard Name and ID System across the Empire There have been many influential projects towards standardization throughout Micras since 2006
Name one. The MTO isn't very active, so again I fail to see how you are correct.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Overtake the MCS Map Babkha's annexations of Antican territory as well as the recent proposed ceding of territory from Shireroth to Babkhan allies are trends towards this direction
Only in your mind. What former Antican territory has Babkha annexed? If you are talking about Parvatvana in northern Eura, that was a voluntary cession from Antica to Babkha in friendship. Shireroth has not ceded any territory to any Babkhan allies, unless of course you are talking about Elwynn, which was not a cession, but a grant of independence from Shireroth.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Regulate micro-nationalism as a hobby through an Empire-controlled
organization known as the Association of Micro-nationalists. Three words: Micras Treaty Organization. However there are also other organizations such as the proposed Benacian Union, Bastion Administration itself, etc. which also are increasing in power
Babkha does not control the MTO, will not be a member of the Benacian Union, nor does it control Bastion administration. Either we are talking about one nation becoming an empire as you speak of, or we look at all nations. I would suggest the former, since the latter makes it very easy to prove there is a major empire coming.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Snuff out competition through peaceful or other means This is where Babkha has really been successful
In what way? Shireroth is still here, so is Ashkenatza, Stormark and Alexandria. Again, you need to show how you are correct, not just say you are.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Institute the position of Emperor/Empress Babkha already had this
Yes, and so does Shireroth, Alexandria and Stormark (if you call the High King and Emperor). Again, you are not proving anything.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Institute an Imperial Council, composed of ministers selected by the
Emperor Babkha already had this
Yes, again with jurisdiction over Babkha.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Institute an Imperial Senate, composed of one senator from each
member nation Babkha already had this
Again, with jurisdiction over Babkha. Alexandria also has a legislature.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Institute a Supreme Court of the Empire, composed of judges selected
by the Council See the MTO common court. And Babkhan Courts have been quite active internationally lately.
The Common Court is inactive and its members are selected by the MTO General Assembly, not Babkha. The Babkhan courts have no international jurisdiction, so I don't really understand what you're talking about there.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Make it known that the Empire is the very definition of micro-
nationalism, and that all micro-nations are a part of the empire
regardless of their government’s opinions The renaming of micro-nationalism into interactive geofiction, the trend towards standardization...these things are trends towards this direction
Only Scott calls it interactive geofiction. Stop making stuff up.
Gustave Chevalier wrote:• Allow sub-nations to conduct their own foreign affairs and other
business Some autonomy has to be allowed or people would just split entirely and then the Empire would dissolve. I think we are seeing some autonomy being allows in Bastion and MTO nations/

Bastion nations are entirely sovereign, as are MTO nations. You are really just showing your ignorance now. Any serious political analyst would of course know that Babkha isn't even a member of the MTO.

Stop being such a huge idiot now, please. You are embarassing yourself.
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Aster »

I like to think that Babkha is a deadly combination of very smart and also very malicious.
So do they. It's so tiresome.
There are already many institutions in existence today that, if they were under the control of Babkha or even just influenced strongly by Babkha, would constitute many of the main criteria that I consider to form a full-fledged Empire. The Emir might be selling himself short to not consider that Babkhans might have influence over these "Imperial" institutions. His fellow Babkhans might belong to them.

I think the addition of Babkhan bases to Elwynn and then getting an Elwynn sympathizer installed as Shireroth's Kaiser and then forging strong ties with Elwynn equates to a coup.
Yes, yes and yes. It's just sad how many members of these institutions and nations insist otherwise whilst doing almost everything Babkha (i.e. Ardy) want. And people wonder why new arrivals don't stay very long...
But perhaps some Babkhans are not as self-absorbed as one might believe
They really are. ;)
Its competitors including Ashkenatza are waning.
How did you figure that one out? We've got more PPD than Babkha at the moment.
Bastion Administration itself
Oh yes. Some of us have been saying this since Bastion began. It's nice to be proven right...and amusing to look back at the protestations made against Ashkenatzi concerns about Bastion back then ;)
This is preposterous. As far as I know, there are no Babkhan bases in Elwynn, just a military access treaty, something Babkha and many others routinely sign. Babkha had no hand in installing the current Kaiser, who has made no decrees or other measures to bring Shireroth closer to Babkha. Scott chose Ric out of his own volition. How forging strong ties to Elwynn, a former part of Shireroth, constitutes part of a coup is beyond me. Babkha will not eliminate Shireroth since Shireroth is getting on fine at the moment. This is stupid.
Silence manchild. We all know what 'military access' in the Raspur and Mango-Camel pact entails, and why it's been given. I see little benefit to the powers that have signed the Raspur pact - it's blatantly one sided. I don't know what they get out of it and I don't want to know - perhaps they like the feeling of being used?
Bastion was not founded by Babkha. Membership is voluntary. Member nations are fully sovereign as Bastion is not a political union, so you are again incorrect.
The obvious attempt to transfer the MCS to Bastion control...hmm
nor does it control Bastion administration
lol.
Only Scott calls it interactive geofiction. Stop making stuff up.
True dat. Ashkenatza has never used that term - nor has any Alexandrian, Stormarkian, Norse, Ocian, Batavian, Hamlander or Babkhan I am aware of.
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Aster »

I think I have to agree with the general tenor of the criticisms issued by overs above though - this analysis is what the Babkhans would like to think, rather than what actually is. That said the obvious complicity and puppet nature of many leading micronational figures and major nations is all too obvious.

...All that aside, I like the idea of a company offering Geopolitical analysis. Keep it up!
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Harvey »

1) I too enjoyed Asimov's Foundation series, but trying to apply it to micronationalism seriously as anything more than a theme is sheer insanity.

2) Wasn't all this, like, 6 years old? Older? Why is it being reposted now?

3) There is no "Bastion Administration" outside the endless stream of requests to Ari. The top-level organization is so loose that it literally doesn't exist. Anything Aster thinks proved him right is him seeing what he wants to see, which simply does not exist in reality. Seriously, how the hell he doesn't have a spy in the Situation Room to comfirm this when there are like 50 people with access to that is beyond me. Grow a spy program, dudes.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Aster »

Seriously, how the hell he doesn't have a spy in the Situation Room to comfirm this when there are like 50 people with access to that is beyond me.
What makes you think I don't?

...However, one thing we can all agree upon is that 'Foundation' is pretty awesome.
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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by Emir of Raspur »

Well if nothing else I'm impressed that Aster was able to tear himself away from the maroon polyp fixation of him and his ilk long enough to grace this thread with his commentary. I would however only take issue with the point where he seems to suggest that our politicking is instrumental in driving people away from the hobby. I doubt that greatly. Micronationalism is a quite odd, out of the way game that in terms of a geopolitical simulation is done better in other formats elsewhere.

I would suggest to Aster therefore that the people who leave are leaving anyway and that is quite irrespective of whether they have had the rank displeasure of interacting with either you or I.

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Re: Geopolitical Analysis 2006

Post by ari »

Harvey wrote:3) There is no "Bastion Administration" outside the endless stream of requests to Ari. The top-level organization is so loose that it literally doesn't exist. Anything Aster thinks proved him right is him seeing what he wants to see, which simply does not exist in reality.
You only think so because you haven't been let into the Secret Bastion Cabal.
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